The Monday Signal
Prediction tracker
We write down what we expect to happen — and what regulators, vendors and analysts say will happen — with a date by which it can be judged. When the date comes, we check and publish the outcome, including when we were wrong.
Open
- OpenOur call75% likely
LiteLLM publishes a post describing the process improvements it is making after the v1.107.0 compromise.
- OpenAutoriteit Persoonsgegevens · Dutch data protection authority
The Dutch AP will hold a roundtable with the debt collection sector on 2 December 2026 to discuss its findings and recommendations.
“De AP organiseert op 2 december 2026 een rondetafelgesprek met organisaties uit de incassobranche.”
- OpenOur call30% likely
New York amends or formally clarifies the prohibited-feature categories in its youth chatbot law (SB 9051B/AB 10379C) before it applies.
- OpenKathy Hochul · Governor of New York
Under New York's new law, minors will no longer have access to companion chatbots that pose as friends or partners.
“no longer will minors have access to chatbots that pretend to be their friends, boyfriends and girlfriends.”
- OpenOur call80% likely
Meta will publicly announce an appeal or file a post-trial challenge to New Mexico's $25 billion penalty by 31 January 2027.
- OpenCompetition and Markets Authority · UK competition regulator
The CMA will make its final decision on whether to designate Microsoft with strategic market status by the February 2027 statutory deadline.
“The CMA’s findings are provisional and subject to consultation before a final decision on designation is made by the February 2027 statutory deadline.”
- OpenOur call45% likely
The European Commission or AI Office will publicly confirm a further formal enforcement step against a general-purpose AI model provider (a new information request, an evaluation or the opening of proceedings) by 31 March 2027.
- OpenOur call65% likely
The FTC has not published a final enforcement policy statement on personalised pricing.
- OpenOur call55% likely
METR will publish its first risk analysis produced under its embedded, employee-like arrangement with Anthropic by 30 April 2027.
- OpenCompetition and Markets Authority · UK competition regulator
The CMA will publish a further update on its cloud services engagement with AWS and Microsoft in spring 2027.
“Today’s update can be found on the decision page and the CMA will publish a further update in Spring 2027.”
- OpenAnthropic · AI developer
METR will publish its analysis of Anthropic's risk levels, incidents or practices.
“METR will publish its analysis of our risk levels, incidents, or practices.”
How we judge
- Came true, partly or did not happen is decided on the due date against a public source, which we link. Void means the outcome cannot be judged fairly (for example, the question changed).
- Predictions are never edited after publication. Corrections to an outcome are noted on the entry.
- Others’ predictions are quoted word for word from the linked source; we judge the claim, not the person.
- ¹ Partly counts as half. Void and open predictions are not counted.
- ² For our predictions we state how likely we think they are. The Brier score measures how well those confidence levels match outcomes: 0 is perfect, 0.25 is what always saying “50%” would get.